The Math Is Against Facebook

A very interesting article written by Alex Realmuto and published by MediaPost on their Engage:Teens blog* suggests something we've been highlighting to our clients for quite a while: Facebook Has a Math Problem.

Basically, popularity predicts the rise of alternatives. So, as Facebook became more popular, it faced competition: alternatives to woo away customers.

So what does this mean for you?

Well, a billion people is a nice-sized audience, so Facebook continues to be a worthy consideration in your marketing mix. Especially if you yearn for customers in the demographic categories that are still growing. But what news of customer disengagement means is that marketers can't enter the room and solve a customer's problem with one word—"Facebook." Even using the broader category of "Social" isn't a clear path to business success. Hush now, but marketers may need to reinsert phrases like "Print" and "Media Buy" into their vernacular.

What should you do?

1. Monitor the trend. Are consumers shifting their time away from Facebook and into other Social platforms?

2. Allocate your resources accordingly. You may want to reinvest in a trade show or local event to raise awareness and acquire customers.

3. Dig deeper. Why are people disengaging with Facebook? Are they seeking a unique communication channel that has exclusivity and offers useful insights? If so, be sure to provide this sort of channel of communication. Make sure your website, newsletter and corporate blog take steps to meet this need.

4. Reward loyalty. Yes, it is harder to win new customers than to keep current ones. And it isn't simply word of mouth that sustains and builds your brand; it is great brand experiences that are the source of referrals. Words from mouths happen when you surprise and delight customers and deliver on your brand promise.

It is unlikely that a giant such as Facebook will completely disappear from minds of the consumers, and popularity and mass use will continue to make it a worthy consideration for marketers. But it isn't fantastical to think its demise might some day happen.

Myspace once celebrated over 100 million accounts and was at one time sold for $580 million. More recently a much more modest sale was reported at under $30 million, and unique visitors to Myspace were listed at 25 million—not an unsubstantial number, but a far fall from being the most-visited-website (even more than Google) position that Myspace once held.

Like most popular things, Facebook interest waxes and wanes. If you want your business success to remain constant or continue to grow you'll need to be agile—flexing your marketing to the vagaries of the consumers you seek. Just because the math is against hugely popular things doesn't mean there isn't a timeless quality to excellence and value. Provide both and the math is on your side.

*Note that in the comments related to the article Alex references Facebook's own 10-K document and a study from the Pew Institute as sources for his article.